Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign

Human Society Politics & Government Why does socialism look good in the beginning but eventually collapses? > Sustainability Our Two-Party System is a Poisoned Institution: The two-party system has devolved into a poisoned institution.  The campaigns backed by enormous capital have become killing machines that are not past doing anything to scuttle a candidate and the other party's ship.  They mirror the overall problems we have with BIG bureaucracy in general with too much unchecked wealth and power, and when and where that happens, waste, cronyism, corruption, and fraud fester and grow below the surface. sp subsidiarity: Nothing should be done by a larger and more complex organization which can be done as well by a smaller and simpler organization. big idea The conflict between justice and tyranny occurs in every political order because it occurs in every human soul. Marini Power concedes nothing without a demand. Douglass in general: Hillary Clinton: Shattered Allen > Trump | gerrymandering (REDMAP) Trump: Ratf**ked Daley | fascism: On Tyranny Snyder, Fourteen Defining Characteristics Of Fascism Britt | strategy: The Art Of War Sun Tzu | entrepreneurs vs. bureaucrats: Bureaucracy von Mises | lobbying: Miss Sloane | power and knowledge: Michel Foucault | conservatism: Imprimis | watchdogs: Judicial Watch | socialism: The History and Danger of Administrative Law Hamburger | compromise: Three Kinds of Compromise Cobb | Death of the Liberal Class Hedges | The Communist Manifesto Marx | The Political Economy of Grand Strategy Narizny | The Problem of Big DeMint | The Road to Serfdom Hayek | United States: occupations | minimum government, maximum freedom: Libertarian Party | cold war: A Most Wanted Man le Carre | trust: Politicians are Consummate Performers sp | impeachment: A Just Cause | libertarian: The Libertarian Mind Boaz | cold war: Bridge of Spies, The Billion Dollar Spy Hoffman | pro-government: Leviathan Hobbes | The Prince Machiavelli | Zero Dark Thirty

Illinois Needs a Moon Shot

Biosphere Sustainability climate  |modeling | society | unintended Water touches everything. Permanence is the illusion of every age. To create a product that is safe, healthy, affordable, effective, and designed to be returned safely to nature or industry after use. Cradle-to-Cradle Can the company demonstrate to society and investors the link between sustainable business and corporate value? in general: overshoot: Limits to Growth Meadows > Modeling | unsustainability: Finland’s system of social benefits is unsustainable | energy innovation: Breakthrough Energy Coalition | Permanence is the illusion of every age. | carbon-neutral cities: carbon markets, Malmo, Sweden | forums & institutes: Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, theinstituteforsustainability, Worldwatch Institute | about: Sustainability Primer | buildings: Living Building Challenge | circular economy: about | globalization: telecoupling big ideas | measure ROI: The Green Scorecard Phillips | Collapse or Sustainability of Societies Motesharrei | Cradle to Cradle McDonough | Crowd Supply | design: Ideas and Integrities Fuller | farming: The Farm Bromfield | Sustainable Freshwater Aquaculture Romanowski | more

by Scott PIckard

For all of us that have a commitment to living out our years in Illinois, it’s a very scary proposition. I’ve got a State pension and who knows what could happen 5, 10, 20 years down the road. I guess I’m going to find out.

Illinois is in a slow bankruptcy burn. I’ve been inside companies that went bankrupt and Illinois has all the signs:

  • overwhelmed by crushing debt that grows daily
  • harassed by creditors from every angle that is slowly grinding the State down
  • a delusional hope springs eternal denial of the problem
  • citizen’s clueless to the real magnitude of the problem; or,
  • they simply don’t give a shit because there is nothing they can do about it and when it all blows up, they will just move on down the road
  • the problem is unfixable
  • the State is checked
  • the State is….. checkmate

The State will eventually hit the wall and either goes through a “simulated” bankruptcy; or, everything and everybody blows away like dust in the wind.

Chris Kennedy and other wealthy businessmen-politicians mean well but will only give us what the classic quote tells us and we all know deep down: “If you keep doing what you have always done, you will keep getting what you have always gotten.” But, I do admire that Kennedy et al want a crack at the State’s Fiscal Gordian Knot and are chomping at the bit to kick out Governor Bruce Rauner on his billion-dollar country club ass.

The politicians will NEVER solve the State’s Fiscal Gordian Knot in our lifetimes. Only the people can solve this by:

  • firing every sitting politician all the way up to the governor
  • hiring a third party turnaround trustee-manager person that does not live in Illinois and is clean of any conflicts of interest
  • have the person report directly to the people
  • have the person manage a “moonshot” competition to develop a 50-year plan to reach financial sustainability
  • any person and/or team on the planet can submit their moonshot plan
  • have the people use “approval voting” to vote for the best moonshot plan
  • the winning moonshot team gets $100M paid out over 50 years contingent on performance of the plan over time
  • while the plan is playing out, re-engineer and revolutionize Illinois government so this never happens again

All you radical-thinking, clear-thinking people out there, here’s your chance to make your mark, never have to work again (unless you want to), save Illinois, and in the process design a revolutionary financial roadmap for the rest of the world because we’re all going to need it.

Crazy, you say?

Have you got a better idea?

- sp -

cash

cash

by scott pickard

Cash is king, as the old saying goes. It is the one resource a company cannot survive without for any length of time until the doors are closed, voluntarily or involuntarily, which is why the CEO must find or develop a method to reliably understand and predict the company’s current and future ability to generate the cash it needs to pay all of its bills.

Forecasting cash flow is much easier than it used to be, thanks to the convenient number-crunching power of PCs and spreadsheet software which allows one to build an Integrated Spreadsheet which links a projected balance sheet and income statement for the business. The Integrated Spreadsheet is a tool that will give any CEO the positive direct control they must have over the financial rudder of the business.

A wise time investment for CEO’s
A company’s cash flow at any point in time is a juxtaposition of payables, receivables, debt service, capital expenditures, sales/repurchases of stock, and other factors. An Integrated Spreadsheet handles this complex financial interaction with electronic precision. Using this tool, a CEO can more carefully predict where the company is heading. That’s powerful planning and peace of mind for the executive/owner that shoulders the burden of consistently meeting payroll and staying current with suppliers on all bills.

  • The Integrated Spreadsheet gives the CEO a rational way to appropriately pace capital expenditures, quarterly (or even monthly) bonus payments, and sweeps of excess cash into less liquid but higher-returning financial instruments at the earliest possible time.
  • The Integrated Spreadsheet allows the CEO to look at the effect on cash from big-picture business initiatives such as acquiring a new business, selling off a division, developing and staffing a new department, or launching a new product line.
  • Using an Integrated Spreadsheet helps the CEO disclose mistakes that are sometimes made in monthly financial statements from either miscoding or a faulty accounting interpretation of a particular transaction.
  • With an Integrated Spreadsheet the company always has a three-year plan that is built on actual operating numbers, but fine-tuned to reflect management’s best judgment of future revenues and expenses.
  • The Integrated Spreadsheet can easily generate an unlimited number of graphs to analyze past performance and predict future performance which is often the most effective way to communicate financial data to employees, directors, shareholders, and the bank.
  • An Integrated Spreadsheet will demonstrate to the bank, board, and investors that the financial management and budgeting of the company is under control which promotes confidence in the officers and the business by its internal and external constituents.

DIY

Assuming the user knows their way around a spreadsheet and double- entry accrual accounting, the structure of an Integrated Spreadsheet can be set up in a few hours. It will take a day or so to input the previous twelve months of operating data; a day to input informed estimates of revenues, expenses, and capital expenditures for the next twelve months and to fine-tune those estimates; and a day to train all users who will have access to the Integrated Spreadsheet.

If the CEO cannot spare the time, this task can be delegated to inside accounting staff or subcontracted to an outside accountant or consultant. If this project is delegated, it is still important that the CEO be trained in the use of the Integrated Spreadsheet so that he or she can perform what-if analyses and generally watch over the constantly revising forecast of the financials of the business, a function that should be owned by the CEO. Financial forecasting involves hundreds of experience-based estimates of highest-probable outcomes of revenues, expenses, capital expenditures, debt service, equity inflows and outflows, extraordinary gains and losses, and other income and expenses, by someone that has the overview of the business. The CEO has this overview as it is part of the responsibility of the position.

Basic structure of the integrated spreadsheet
It is important for the user to have a general understanding of how the spreadsheet is laid out and functions. The integrated spreadsheet has three major components:

  • Balance Sheet
  • Income Statement
  • Cash flow adjustment

These three components are linked or integrated so that they balance or tie out in accrual accounting terms. These integrated accounts are highlighted in various colors as shown on the diagram below:

cashflow

The major points of integration are identified by the matching colors. For example, the link between “depreciation” on the balance sheet and “depreciation expense” on the income statement is shown in brown, since these two entries must be identical in double-entry accrual accounting. There are in fact numerous links between the income statement and the balance sheet as a result of the double-entry methodology. The beauty of the spreadsheet is it affords the user the flexibility to add/subtract/modify at will and build increasing sophistication into the integrated spreadsheet enabling a more realistic modeling of the financial dynamics of the business.

I’ve posted a power point presentation on prezi that leads you through the basic construction of the integrated spreadsheet. The secret sauce in this process is the synching of a cash flow adjustment (plug) at the bottom of the spreadsheet below the income statement as shown in the diagram below:

2slides

By wiring together these key accounts to calculate the actual cash flow for each month, this will cause what’s known as a circular calculation in the spreadsheet which is normally a no-no, but in this case it is a good thing! The user simply needs to go into “settings” and set the automatic calculation to 100 iterations and the spreadsheet will automatically recalculate and balance the statements after each new value entry to a cell.

Using the tool

Once the integrated spreadsheet is set up, using it effectively involves inputting the actuals from each monthly financial statement as they occur and reforecasting the numbers going forward from the most recent actuals. This process repeats itself every month — inputting the most recent actuals and reforecasting ahead — and as each month goes by and the user gains experience in using the spreadsheet and making experience-based judgments of how the numbers will track, the integrated spreadsheet becomes an expert system that does a better job over time of forecasting the financial fortunes (or misfortunes) of the company. The key point is that all of this boils down to one most important account: cash flow.

Once the process of updating actuals and forecasting ahead is complete,
the CEO looks at the impact on cash and then develops a financing plan
that optimizes the uses of working capital in the next six months and beyond.
If the projected cash flow shows surpluses being generated, the CEO can
decide how that excess cash could be used today and in the coming months
to:

  • Reduce payables
  • Reduce long-term debt
  • Make capital expenditures
  • Make other long-term investments

If the projected cash flow is negative, the CEO must plan for how the
minimum working capital requirements for the business will be generated to
carry the company through tight cash periods by a combination of:

  • Drawing down cash surpluses
  • Deferring certain operating and capital expenditures
  • Extending the payables cycle for a brief period within acceptable bounds
  • Making a draw on an operating line of credit
  • Securing additional long-term financing
  • Raising equity capital through the sale of common or preferred shares

Summary

If the CEO can build the integrated spreadsheet for the business and start using it each month ( if not each day), learning by doing is the most efficient user’s manual. The CEO will quickly discover the many dimensions of value that are derived from the integrated spreadsheet aside from the very tangible value of forecasting cash flow. The integrated spreadsheet causes the user to think about every aspect of the business, across all accounts, across time, across strategies, by looking back to look forward. And at the end of the exercise instead of saying, “I hope we’ll have the money in the bank when we need it,” the CEO can say, “We expect to have the cash we need, and here’s how.”

That’s powerful business confidence!

- sp -

Fourth Industrial Revolution

Human Society Production and Utilization of Wealth  Are we on the cusp of a Fourth Industrial Revolution?  Will it be a force for good or evil?  Will it provide new opportunities for all, or will it exacerbate inequalities? Davos ‘16 > Randomness/unintended Economic Theory and Systems Economic Theory: index of economic freedom Economic Systems Historical development of economic systems Capitalism Centrally-planned systems Appraising economic systems The Consumer and the Market Scarcity, utility, and value: behavioral economics: | Valuation Consumer behavior: Buying Decisions | inelasticity Markets: markets hate uncertainty Price system in capitalist economies Organization of Production and Distribution Organization of the production of goods Marketing and Merchandising Inputs of the productive process Institutions that facilitate business formation, production, output Money Currency & Exchange Stock exchanges: AI Banks International: Bank for International Settlements BIS economic statistics business organization stock markets: Volatility Index (VIX) fear index Agricultural economics International trade Government’s role in production & distribution: privatization Methods of business organization Advertising & Promotion Distribution of risk Consumer credit: Don’t use a credit card for a loan sp Distribution of Income and Wealth the rich get richer and the poor get poorer Matthew Effect Distribution by categories of the population: Forbes 400 | gini coefficient How government affects the distribution Capitalism Taxation Laffer Curve postulates that no tax revenue will be raised at the extreme tax rates of 0% and 100% and that there must be at least one rate where tax revenue would be a non-zero maximum. Poverty Macroeconomics National income and employment theory misery index unemployment: U3 and U6 Intl. equilibrium and disequilibrium Business cycles Inflation and deflation key indicators: monetary velocity Economic Growth and Planning Nature and causes of economic growth Planning for economic growth and stability Government Finance Growth  books, forums, journals: innovation: The Fourth Industrial Revolution Schwab | behavioral: Misbehaving Thaler | Capital in the Twenty-First Century Piketty big ideas | Stealth of Nations by Neuwirth | The Mystery of Capital De Soto | The Wealth of Nations Smith | Wall Street Journal | World Economic Forum Davos

Davos 2016: Fourth Industrial Revolution

 

Absorption of new technologies accelerates

big picture Technology Who are the world's most valuable tech companies? We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters founders fund Is it evil? How fast is technology accelerating? - The Universe was created 13.8 billion years ago - Humans arrived 200,000 years ago - Machines arrived 100 years ago - What’s the next milestone? Development of Technology Elements of Technology Fields of Technology  in general: mapping the future: Metaculus > Future | early adoption: leveling the playing field | kids: uTech | news: re/code

Building the Integrated Cash Flow Forecasting Spreadsheet

Global Trends 2030

Time Future  Has technology given us the opportunity to flourish, or to self-destruct? Why can’t we remember the future? What is emerging? What impact will it have?  in general: The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Kay | aircraft/car | digital archive of you: lifenaut | education: Houston Foresight, thefutureschannel | energy: The Future of Energy | food: The Future of Food NG | gamification: gaming the future | history: Italian Futurism Manifesto 1909 | paperless society portals: BBC Future, Matter longform journalism, paperless society, PBSK Labs editorial |  time capsules: one second per day think tanks: extremism: Challenging Extremism, quilliamfoundation | www.aspeninstitute.org, bakas, fastfuture, Institute for Global Futures, iftf, thefuturelaboratory | atlantic council | big issues: www.millennium-project.org, www.fhi.ox.ac.uk, thersa.org | directory: www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/psthink.html#comp | energy security: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security iags.org | European security: European Leadership Network ELN | international affairs: chathamhouse | long-term thinking: Club of Rome, futuristspeaker, hybridreality.me, longbets, Long Now Foundation | survival of the species: Future of Humanity Institute, Future of Life Institute  books: forecasting: Global Trends 2030, Superforecasting Tetlock big ideas > Predictive | Future Science Brockman | Future Shock | Hybrid Reality Ayesha | The Competition of Ideas Weidenbaum | The Extreme Future Canton | The Revolution Will Be Digitised Brooke | The Tyranny of Dead Ideas Miller

SOURCE: International Futures Model