Fourth Industrial Revolution

Human Society Production and Utilization of Wealth  Are we on the cusp of a Fourth Industrial Revolution?  Will it be a force for good or evil?  Will it provide new opportunities for all, or will it exacerbate inequalities? Davos ‘16 > Randomness/unintended Economic Theory and Systems Economic Theory: index of economic freedom Economic Systems Historical development of economic systems Capitalism Centrally-planned systems Appraising economic systems The Consumer and the Market Scarcity, utility, and value: behavioral economics: | Valuation Consumer behavior: Buying Decisions | inelasticity Markets: markets hate uncertainty Price system in capitalist economies Organization of Production and Distribution Organization of the production of goods Marketing and Merchandising Inputs of the productive process Institutions that facilitate business formation, production, output Money Currency & Exchange Stock exchanges: AI Banks International: Bank for International Settlements BIS economic statistics business organization stock markets: Volatility Index (VIX) fear index Agricultural economics International trade Government’s role in production & distribution: privatization Methods of business organization Advertising & Promotion Distribution of risk Consumer credit: Don’t use a credit card for a loan sp Distribution of Income and Wealth the rich get richer and the poor get poorer Matthew Effect Distribution by categories of the population: Forbes 400 | gini coefficient How government affects the distribution Capitalism Taxation Laffer Curve postulates that no tax revenue will be raised at the extreme tax rates of 0% and 100% and that there must be at least one rate where tax revenue would be a non-zero maximum. Poverty Macroeconomics National income and employment theory misery index unemployment: U3 and U6 Intl. equilibrium and disequilibrium Business cycles Inflation and deflation key indicators: monetary velocity Economic Growth and Planning Nature and causes of economic growth Planning for economic growth and stability Government Finance Growth  books, forums, journals: innovation: The Fourth Industrial Revolution Schwab | behavioral: Misbehaving Thaler | Capital in the Twenty-First Century Piketty big ideas | Stealth of Nations by Neuwirth | The Mystery of Capital De Soto | The Wealth of Nations Smith | Wall Street Journal | World Economic Forum Davos

Davos 2016: Fourth Industrial Revolution


China’s Social Credit System

World Since 1920 / East Asia in the 20th century China since 1912 When America China sneezes, the whole world gets a cold. Long term, is it a good idea to take China’s money? Will China’s model for growth which extracts a heavy sacrifice and toll from its people, be sustainable? Development of republic 1912-20: old order disintegrated Interwar years 1920-37: growth of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) War against Japan 1937-45: 2nd Sino-Japanese War after 1st 1894–95 Kuomintang: anti-communism, Chinese nationalism, reunification Chinese Communist ideologies: dynamic to safeguard the party's rule Emergence of the People’s Republic of China economic reform: 60-point plan Internet  social credit: Sesame Credit > Gamification | e-Commerce: alibaba | internet sovereignty | messaging: tencent | search: Baidu orphans: Half the Sky social radar: dissent 2015 population: two-child policy | economy: market meltdown | October: Conflict in South China Sea in general: communist propaganda hip-hop…what!?: rap-aganda | food safety | buy anything: lightinthebox | consumer marketing: prcdirect      books/movies: propaganda: Propaganda Bernays | #1 movie: Monster Hunt | fragile: Red Capitalism Walter | history: In Search of History White | investing: The Chinese are coming, and they’d like to buy your house Francis

China’s social credit system (BBC)


Building the Integrated Cash Flow Forecasting Spreadsheet

Predictive Analytics

As AI accelerates, is our organic thinking declining?

Computer Science Artificial Intelligence (AI)  As machine intelligence accelerates, is our organic thinking declining? Can we build a super-AI that won't kill us? big ideas Is Moore’s Law sustainable? What is the mind? in general: algorithm deelopment: Deep Mind, Machine Intelligence Research Institute, Vicarious | artificial general intelligence: strong AI | biomimetics: models for design of machines |  frame-based systems: recognition and description of objects and classes | portals: Deep Learning | semanitc networks: a set of concepts that are related to one another | turing test: Computing machinery and intelligence | thought experiments: Chinese Room expert systems: chess: Centaur Chess | cognitive computing: IBM Watson | automated complaint resolution: cognicor | decision making: decision-making | machine trading: Dark Pools Patterson, Flash Boys  singularity: about | IBM Watson | moore’s law | Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence books/movies: rise of machines, decline of humans?: What to Think About Machines That Think Brockman > Future | ethics: Machines of Loving Grace Markoff | Accelerando Stross | cyborgs: Ex Machina | risks: Superintelligence Bostrom | Smarter Than Us Armstrong | The Emperor's New Mind Penrose | singularity: The Singularity Is Near Kurzweil Enterprise