Business Intelligence


Global Trends 2030

Time Future  Has technology given us the opportunity to flourish, or to self-destruct? Why can’t we remember the future? What is emerging? What impact will it have?  in general: The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Kay | aircraft/car | digital archive of you: lifenaut | education: Houston Foresight, thefutureschannel | energy: The Future of Energy | food: The Future of Food NG | gamification: gaming the future | history: Italian Futurism Manifesto 1909 | paperless society portals: BBC Future, Matter longform journalism, paperless society, PBSK Labs editorial |  time capsules: one second per day think tanks: extremism: Challenging Extremism, quilliamfoundation | www.aspeninstitute.org, bakas, fastfuture, Institute for Global Futures, iftf, thefuturelaboratory | atlantic council | big issues: www.millennium-project.org, www.fhi.ox.ac.uk, thersa.org | directory: www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/psthink.html#comp | energy security: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security iags.org | European security: European Leadership Network ELN | international affairs: chathamhouse | long-term thinking: Club of Rome, futuristspeaker, hybridreality.me, longbets, Long Now Foundation | survival of the species: Future of Humanity Institute, Future of Life Institute  books: forecasting: Global Trends 2030, Superforecasting Tetlock big ideas > Predictive | Future Science Brockman | Future Shock | Hybrid Reality Ayesha | The Competition of Ideas Weidenbaum | The Extreme Future Canton | The Revolution Will Be Digitised Brooke | The Tyranny of Dead Ideas Miller

SOURCE: International Futures Model

 

Is there a drone market that could be dominated?

There is already a “gold rush” into the drone marketplace with so many entrepreneurs, companies, and investors pursuing the low-hanging fruit when it comes to applying drones to the obvious tasks of surveillance, filming, photographing, delivery, etc. Every application/industry combination one searches on reveals that generally others are already in pursuit.

However, one way to think about this is to go where the “fruit is not hanging low,” which is to say extremely high barriers to entry, and to bodly (foolishly?) go there while others are racing towards the obvious, straightforward applications.

This might be defined by:

  • extremely high technology complexity and risk
  • extremely high capital requirements ($400M+) for hardware, manufacturing, and software (algorithmic) development
  • very small drones down to insect size, vs. going up in size from hobby to military-grade UAVs
  • low-elevation deployment down to ground level
  • battery and/or fuel cell powered with very long range
  • hummingbird-equivalent maneuverability and speed
  • stealth capabilities with difficult-to-detect low-noise signature
  • massive manufacturing/distribution scalability

If it is now impossible or seems impossible in our lifetimes, then no one will pursue that domain, and, maybe reason enough to not pursuit it.

in general: aquatic: ziphius | autonomous killing: terrorists | distribution: amazon | facial recognition: Drones With Facial Recognition Tech Will End Anonymity Conte | journalism: news gathering | Micro-Air Vehicles: MAV | quadrocopters: Viacopter Optimized Self | Issues | Utopia/Dystopia | War

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